We couldn't help having a wry smile at one of the lead dairy news articles this week "No danger for dairy prices" Simone Smith, weeklytimesnow.com.au, Nov 2, 2011. A search of the archives found a selection of articles with the same general expectation from January to July 2008:

Outlook '08: Dairy exports to reach $3.8 billion
Marius Cuming, farmonline.com.au, Mar 5 2008
World milk prices remain at record highs
The Land, Jul 23 2008
Fonterra lifts payout to record $7.90/kg
stuff.co.nz, May 30 2008
Fonterra dairy exports rise to quarter of entire national total
Owen Hembry, New Zealand Herald, Jul 28 2008

There is a strange absence of press releases in the Fonterra news archive from July 2007 to September 2008 but we can tell you that they did warn of impending volatility and uncertainty in May 2008.

Here is a chart showing the overlap of Oceania WMP prices from January to December 2008 and the corresponding trend for 2011. The trend comparison is just a little bit scary, and yes we got it wrong in 08/09 as well. Our general message remains however - "Don't Panic"

Discussion of the comparison of international milk prices has prompted us to update our chart of Austalian milk prices.  Here you see the long run comparison between Australia, New Zealand, the US and UK. This is expressed in the Australian unit of measure $AU / kg MS.  The latest data shows the fall off in Oceania prices after a year or two of reasonable parity with the US commodity milk pools. See Dr Hauser's blog for more discussion and for conversion to your currency and milk units of choice you could try our global milk price calculator.

Bega’s executive chairman Barry Irvin has taken Rabobank’s leadership award for contributions to food and agribusiness. Rabobank Australia and NZ CEO, Thos Gieskes: “In little over a decade the Bega Cheese group has grown from a single-site regional dairy processor in southern New South Wales… to its position today as the southern hemisphere’s largest cheese-packing and processing business, with sales nudging close to $AU1 billion a year”.

The NZ Crafar farms have received another offer - $171.5 million or about $28 500 per hectare – which sits a bit below the current $200 million offer by Shanghai Pengxin. The offer is being fronted by Sir Michael Fay and comes from a group of central North Island dairy farmers and hence it does not require Overseas Investment Office (OIO) approval. Mr Fay says his group is the only other serious offer, saying they’re “ready to walk onto the land. Obviously that’s subject to the [OIO] rejecting the current offer”. The Fay group previously made an offer for nine of the sixteen Crafar farms which was declined.

The arguing over NZ domestic milk prices has been ushered in to court this week with national secretary Peter Ritchie saying that “some outlets are creaming it at some times”. Ritchie is arguing for transparency over retail and wholesale profit margins.

Here is a piece of nostalgia to put a smile on the face of those nervous nellies out there.

Our favourite dairy commentator is back on the job. 

One for the pioneers of dairy

UK’s Dairy Crest (DC) is bumping up farmgate prices to help farmers cope with higher diesel and feed costs. The 1.85ppl increase will be payed from next month and DC is in negotiations with retailers about passing this price increase onto consumers. Robert Wiseman Dairies is also looking to raise prices in the near future.

John Ballard will be retiring from Fonterra’s Board of Directors after five years at the post. Mr Ballard was active on the Appointments, Remuneration and Development Committee and the Health and Safety Committee and will remain until Fonterra’s annual meeting in November.