Yes we are back¹ and there is a lot to discuss. The world seems destined to cycle back into recession, declining commodity prices, the Australian dollar retreats back to below parity, feed prices rising in the US and elsewhere, uncertainty everywhere, optimism hard to find. As we gear up again in the next couple of months I will start to address these questions and see if there is some sort of order and predictability amongst the disorder. In the meantime, as I have said before:

Here at Xcheque we have every faith in the eventual equilibrium of global supply / demand, and especially where it applies to food. If anything the trend is still in the farmer’s favour. In the US feed prices are rising and that is a recipe for higher milk prices, if not immediately, then not too far down the track. US dairy farmers will not tolerate low margins and will simply turn off supply to minimise their exposure to the cost of feed for lower priced milk (ie. for the commodities cheese, butter, and milk powder). We hear that China and India’s demand for increased protein continues apace. Here in Oceania, the recession that Europe had to have is giving strength to the US dollar – lowering the AUD and NZD, providing stability to falling dairy commodity prices and improving competitive advantage compared to the US. Everyone needs to eat, more people want to eat more, and have the money to pay for it. Is all this sane and sustainable? We can only hope so and suggest you take another look into the laws of economic gravity to find the answer.

We will have our news and charts updated shortly and of course it wouldn't be the same without the dairy oddspot and Dave's view.  But don't get too excited, from here on you will start to see changes at Xcheque.com and unfortunately that means less free stuff. We definitely need some sustenance to keep the fire in the belly. If however, you like what you see, and you want more of it, you would do well to go via this link in the first instance.

¹ For the fans of pop media and Xcheque’s Dairy Oddspots we scoured the internet for a suitable return to form. There were many to choose from and in the end we opted for something short and to the point. Go here to see the all the clips and feel free to rate them according to your taste and inclination.